NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence declined to its lowest point since April 2014 in September, marking the continuation of a three-month downward trend in household sentiment. According to The Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 6.7 points to reach 81.9. The previous August figure was revised downward from its initial reading to 88.6. The survey conducted in September included responses collected from September 1 through September 23. Both current condition assessments and expectations for the upcoming six months deteriorated over the month.
The Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, indicating a less optimistic outlook on business and labor markets. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. This index gauges consumer opinions on income, business conditions, and employment prospects over the next half-year. The declines in July, August, and September contributed to dragging the overall confidence measure further below earlier this year’s levels.
The survey by The Conference Board revealed a noticeable shift in perspectives regarding current business conditions. Approximately 18.5% of consumers described the environment as good, slightly down from 18.8% in August. Conversely, those rating conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Views on the labor market also softened, with 23.6% stating jobs were plentiful—down from 24.5%—and 21.9% perceiving jobs as hard to find—up from 20.3%.
Rising inflation expectations linked to persistent fuel costs
In September, consumers reported higher inflation expectations. The average 12-month inflation outlook increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, with the median rising to 5.1%. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed consumer prices grew by 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The agency also noted gasoline prices increased 3.9% during August. Additionally, AAA reported a national average of about $4.46 a gallon for regular gasoline on September 29.
Spending plans across various categories reflected some hesitation. On a six-month moving average, intentions to purchase automobiles and homes both declined slightly in September. Expectations for spending on services, including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, also fell again. In contrast, vacation plans gained strength, with 42.6% of consumers planning trips within the next six months—a 0.5 percentage point increase from August, primarily driven by domestic travel.
Outlook on employment and income continues to weaken
Expectations regarding business conditions, employment opportunities, and income prospects have diminished. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. Those expecting conditions to worsen rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. Regarding jobs, 14.0% expected more job openings, while 28.4% anticipated fewer available positions. Income expectations also softened, with 17.9% forecasting gains and 15.4% predicting declines over the next six months.
Household financial outlooks reflected increased strain, with net views of current family finances turning negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels declined across all age groups and nearly all income brackets based on the six-month average. The online monthly survey conducted by Toluna for The Conference Board closed its September data collection on September 23. The next release of the Consumer Confidence Index is scheduled for October 27.